
They say that it should serve as a warning that a similarly catastrophic eruption could happen again. In fact, Giuseppe said that the chances of another eruption occurring in the coming year is around 50%. It would not necessarily be as big as the Bronze Age Avellinian catastrophe, but he did note that the most recent large eruptions have occurred in 2,000 year cycles.
They have criticized the civil authorities for not coming up with a plan to evacuate the 3 million people living in the area in the event of a similar eruption. This has obviously not endeared them to the developers, politicians, and civil authorities who have reasons (none of them scientific) for downplaying the risk of such a catastrophe.
Their paper was published in 2006 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences; you can read it online.
Anyway, it was a great interview; they were both charming and generous with their time. I wish I could meet all of my profile subjects in person. (Not to mention visit all of the volcano sites!)
1 comment:
The disgruntled civil authorities should take a page from the Gunflint area of Grand Marais. The recent fire evacuation and prep plans worked nearly flawlessly and no lives were lossed. Granted, the population sizes are vastly different, but the evac plan devised and practiced prior to the fire shows "civil authority" at its highest level.
Post a Comment